March Madness bracket 2023 predictions: South Region picks, sleepers

After storming through the SEC with a 16-2 record in the regular season and a resounding three-game run in the conference tournament, Alabama claimed the No. 1 overall seed in the 2023 March Madness tournament on Sunday, mere hours after demolishing Texas A&M on a neutral court.

That’s the giant awaiting the other 16 teams in the South Region, which feels ripe for first-round upsets and a potential cakewalk for the Crimson Tide all the way to the Final Four.

Here are the odds to win the South Region, per FanDuel, and how we’re betting the region overall:

2023 March Madness south region odds

(via FanDuel)

2023 March Madness south region predictions and preview

No. 1 Seed: Alabama (+190)

Even with all the controversy swirling around this program, Alabama never looked fazed en route to a 29-5 record against the ninth-hardest schedule in the country.

Brandon Miller is virtually unstoppable as a three-level scorer and has future NBA star written all over him, but Alabama’s tenacious defense and breakneck pace are enough to overwhelm opponents even if Miller has an off night – which he rarely does.

Sleeper: No. 10 Utah State (+4600)

We highlighted Utah State among our best mid-major sleepers, though this team is better than your typical Cinderella squad.

The Aggies rank 18th in adjusted efficiency margin and rank among the nation’s best in 3-point percentage (38.5%) and assist rate (62.3%).

They also have the size to bang down low with power programs and the experience to make a potential run, especially with Alabama on the other side of the regional bracket.

Team to Avoid: No. 8 Maryland (+1700)

I want absolutely nothing to do with Maryland, which has been a compelling team at home and a downright awful one on the road.

The Terrapins won just two of their 11 true road games this year with a 3-2 record on a neutral floor, capped off with a double-digit loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament.

Maryland’s subpar rim protection and perimeter shooting is concerning enough against West Virginia; it’s a virtual death knell against potential second-round opponent Alabama.

1st-Round Upset: No. 12 Charleston (+172) over No. 5 San Diego State

Both Charleston and Furman are sure to be popular upset picks in this region, but I have more faith in Pat Kelsey’s group, which posted the best record in the country (31-3) and has a clear identify that should give San Diego State some issues.

The Aztecs’ defense ranks 10th in efficiency in part by allowing teams to shoot their way out of any game.

That’s a risky approach against Charleston, which loves firing away from deep and rebounds 35.1% of its own misses. With neither team possessing elite size, gimme the up-tempo Cougars in a tricky spot for the Mountain West champs.

Best 1st-Round Matchup: No. 6 Creighton (-5.5) vs. No. 11 NC State

This is one of the more compelling matchups of the entire first round, mostly because of the way these two teams’ seasons ended.

Creighton and NC State both lost by 20-plus points in their respective conference tournament to cap off wildly inconsistent finishes to the regular season.

We’ve seen both teams sustain elite stretches this season, though the Bluejays are the better team on paper – assuming Wolfpack guard Terquavion Smith doesn’t win this one on his own.

Betting on March Madness 2023?

South Region Winner: No. 1 Alabama (+190)

It’s rarely a smart idea to lay a short price on a regional favorite, especially on the No. 1 overall seed.

This feels like one of the exceptions.

Alabama is as close to a “flawless” team as we have in this year’s field: its elite defense and 3-point shooting raise its floor as high as any team in the country, and Miller’s ridiculous shot-making elevate its ceiling as a title-worthy squad.

Nate Oats’ group is as tested as any team in the tournament and is peaking at the right time for a deep run.

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